Week 12 – 15 October – analysis

Planning trades in advance is a very important part of a trader’s success but most importantly is following the plan and trade the plan. In this post, I go through some of the opportunities I’m looking at, looking at weekly charts.

Capitec Bank

The share broke out the R984-R795 range and both the 200 day and week EMAs. Currently, long Capitec targeting the R1319. Will see how the market reacts to those levels if we get there. The split from PSG will up weight Capitec in the top40 index and the financial index. Which will see some further buying from the ETFs issuers.

Firstrand

 

We have a bearish engulfing candle on a weekly chart in, on top of the bearish flag that we have at the moment. Adding to the wind that we already have with price trading bearish below the 200 and 50 week EMAs. We could see Firstrand break below R36.07 which would trigger a short trade on the bearish flag.

British American Tobacco

 

The share had a false break above R593 which saw the 50 week EMA but not for long and the share came right back to the R593-R561 range. The 200 day EMA proved to be a resistance. I’m looking for a break below R561 to target the lower bound of the R708-R494 weekly range.

Gold and Gold miners

 

Gold miners are close correlated as a result I like looking at the gold chart before looking at the miners.

 

Gold

 

Gold had been forming a falling a wedge, a bullish continuation pattern. Which target the height of the wedge from when it started. We had a break out of the wedge triggering a long trade on gold (I don’t trade gold) after winning the battle with the sellers of gold at $1900. We could potentially see gold reach $2071. Which means we should be looking for long opportunities into gold miners.

DRD gold

 

The share ended the week with a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly chart. Interestingly at the base of a bullish flag, adding some more wind at our back. With a break above R22.33 on the daily chart will trigger the bullish flag trade targeting the R32.40 levels. I’m looking for a close above R20.73 high of the bullish engulfing candle for my first entry. And a second entry above R22.35

Goldfields

 

The share closed the week with a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly chart. While at the same time breaking through the bullish flag. Looking for a close above the high of the engulfing candle (R215.57)  targeting the all-time highs of around R300. the highs of R253 should be looked at with caution.

Anglo gold

 

We have a falling wedge on Anglo gold, the week ended with a bullish engulfing candle and break through the wedge. Looking for a close above the high (R458.71) of the engulfing candle on the daily chart. Targeting the height of the wedge at R628

Harmony gold

 

We have a falling wedge on Harmony, and the share ended the week with a bullish engulfing candle. Breaking through the wedge. I a have a position on the Harmony, I’m looking to add to it on the close above the high of the engulfing candle (R97).

Gold exposure risk management

To manage the concentration with gold miners all having a strong correlation to gold, I split my risk exposure across all gold miners.

Multichoice

 

Canal+ acquisition of Multichoice deeply excited the market. Which saw the share price gap quite significantly and break through the 200 week EMA. We could see the share taking out the all-time highs around the R138.58 level. I’m looking for bullish opportunities on the daily chart.

Impala platinum

 

We have a bullish rectangle flag on the share. The share closed the week with a bullish engulfing candle. I’m in the trade after I triggered a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart at the base of the flag. I looking to add the second quarter of the trade on the close above the high of the engulfing candle on the daily chart. And the final half on the break above the flag at R173 targeting the R204 levels.

JSE

 

We have a descending triangle pattern on JSE. After the share tested the 50 week EMA. looking for a break below R113.88 the base of the descending triangle on the daily chart. Targeting the R82 levels. However, R98 support does concern me, so it will be my first target.

Kumba Iron Ore

 

We have a bullish flag on Kumba. The share closed the week with a bullish engulfing candle. After testing the base of the flag. Looking for a close above R509.97 the high of the engulfing candle on the daily chart. Targeting the R639 levels.

Mr Price 

 

We have a bullish flag pattern on the share. Looking for a break below the R115 Support for a short trade. Using the height of the flag pole targeting the R63 level.

Newplat

 

We have a bullish flag on the share. The share ended the week after testing the 50 week EMA and respecting it. Looking for a break above the R145.90 previous support (current resistance) level. Using the flag pole I’m targeting the R175.46 levels.

Standard bank

 

We have a bearish flag on the share. Looking for a break below the R100.50 support level on the daily chart. Using the flag pole I’m targeting the R36.30 level

Vodacom

 

The has been sandwiched between R137 and R111 since 2019. The R122 level had been strong support. I’m looking for a break below the R122, and a close below R118 (3% break). My initial target is the R111 level and my second target is the R101 support. I have concerns about the risk-reward on the trade. I will potentially take the trade on the rest of the R122 level. To improve the risk-reward

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