Week 16-20 November – analysis

Planning trades in advance is a very important part of a trader’s success but most importantly is following the plan and trade the plan. In this post, I go through some of the opportunities I’m looking at, looking at weekly charts.

 

Before I get started on the week’s game plan. I would like to share with you the tweaks to my trading strategy. All my ideas and charts will be based on it.

 

At the core, I’m a trend following trader. I want to be in the same direction as the longer-term trend (one order of magnitude higher than the chart I’m trading) which in my case would be the weekly chart since I trade the daily chart.

 

I use a pair of exponential moving averages to define a trend on the weekly chart. The 60 amd the 30 EMAs. 

 

  • 30w EMA > 60w EMA the trend is up (Redline)
  • 30w EMA < 60w EMA the trend is down (Blue line)

 

I will be looking to be trading in the direction of the weekly trend. On the daily chart. In addition to the weekly direction, with every trade, I want the 200d EMA (the orange line) to behind me at all times. 

 

That’s the wind at the back that I always refer to.

 

Without any further a due let’s get into the plan.

Mediclinic (MEI) False break?

 

We had a false break last week on the rally of the vaccine news, coupled with a bearish engulfing candle. I’ve been bearish on share. Will be monitoring the share if it trades back into the 5360c -6600c range. Waiting for a break and close below 5124c to take a short position in. Using the height of the head, of the head & shoulders pattern which started to form back in 2019. The minimum target is the 4135c (using the height of the range)  We’ll see how far the legs of the vaccine news run.

Mediclinic False break? by VillageTraderZA on TradingView.com

Growthpoint (GRT) False break.

 

We had a false break on growth point as well. Seems like the worse isn’t over just yet for the property stock. I’m looking for a close below 1026c targeting 746c. Should be interesting to see if the trend channel resistance holds as new support or the share trades back into the range.

Growthpoint (GRT) False break. by VillageTraderZA on TradingView.com

Tiger brands (TBS) undecided symmetrical triangle

 

Tiger brands seem to be undecided at the moment. We have both descending and ascending triangle patterns. We have an ascending triangle breakout which was halted by the descending triangle pattern. Creating a symmetrical triangle pattern. Waiting to see if the 20020c support/resistance holds in which direction. If it breaks to the long side, I will wait for my 30w and 60 EMAs to cross first, before I look into getting long the stock. Other wise looking for a break to the short side. But It’s wait and see at the moment.

Tiger brands (TBS) undecided symmetrical triangle by VillageTraderZA on TradingView.com

Multichoice (MCG) bullish flag

 

Multichoice has been quite bullish, following the acquisition by Canal +. We now have a nice bullish flag on the share. Perhaps the launch of their new decoders which can stream Netflix and Showmax could be a catalyst to some further rally.

Multichoice (MCG) bullish flag by VillageTraderZA on TradingView.com

African Rainbow Minerals (ARI)

 

African Rainbow, has been a trade I like for a while now. We have a nice full flag on the share. The flag pole is quite long as well. Protecting the price 28960c

Bullish flag on African Rainbow Minerals by VillageTraderZA on TradingView.com

Kumba (KIO) Symmetrical triangle

 

We have a decent looking symmetrical triangle, looking good for the continuation to the upside. Using the width of the triangle pattern 67350c looks good as a minimum target.

Symmetrical triangle on Kumba by VillageTraderZA on TradingView.com

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