Chart of interest 2 May 2021

I have recently made a significant change to my trading system. This significant change is actually quite minor. The change is in how I define a primary trend. Initially I used the 30w EMA relative to the 60w EMA. I will now use 50d EMA relative to the 200d EMA.

  • 50d EMA above 200d EMA = Up trend
  • 50d EMA below 200d = Down trend.

I still need the 200d EMA behind me when I buy a stock. That part hasn’t changed.

This subtle change will add the number of trades available for me to trade. Most of which were ignored previously. I will manage that by reducing my risk per trade to 1% per trade with a maximum of 2% accounting for slippage and costs

Account summary 2 May 2021

Total invested capital: R9 000

Balance: R7 415.80 -17.6%

Equity: R9 645.49 +7.17%

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Capitec

Position

Average Entry: R1480

Quantity: 1

Stop loss: R1234.5 (-R245.5 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R245.5 (-3.11%)

I was for a close above R1480, we got that on Thursday 28 APril. The stock closed at R1489.48. I moved my stop loss to R1346.58

Position update

Average Entry: R1480

Quantity: 1

Stop loss: R1346.58 (-R133.42 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R133.42 (-1.80%)

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Firstrand

No Position

Waiting for a close above R53

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Distell

Position

Average Entry: R114.69

Quantity: 26.9

Stop loss: R111.53 (-R3.16 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R85 (-1.08%)

Waiting for 125.50

I’ve added to the position, after the stock broke higher, and trailed my stop loss to R119.58

Distell

Position

Average Entry: R119.57

Quantity: 56.5

Stop loss: R119.58 (-R0.01 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit: +R0.57 (+ 0.01%)

Now waiting for a close above R126.75, to move my stop loss to 122.50

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Barloworld

No Position

Waiting for a close above R98

We got a close above the R98 on Wednesday. Bought 9.5 shares at R100.58

Position

Average Entry: R100.58

Quantity: 9.5

Stop loss: R87.75 (-R12.83 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R-1.64 (-1.64%)

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Multichoice

Position

Average Entry: R131.73

Quantity: 12

Stop loss: R118.88 (-R12.85 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R154.20 (-1.97%)

Waiting for a close above R133

The stock is struggling with the 50d EMA but still holding the 200d EMA. Signaling the market is undecided at the moment. Still consolidating from the run of late 2020.

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Absa

Position

Average Entry: R126

Quantity: 18

Stop loss: R118.7 (-R7.30 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R131.40 (-1.77%)

We have a nice symmetrical triangle pattern on Absa. The stock is holding the 50d EMA. R122 seems to hold support as well.

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Afrrican Rainbow Minerals

Position

Average Entry: R283.07

Quantity: 7.1

Stop loss: R260.07 (-R23 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R163.30 (-2.08%)

Waiting for a close above: R294.50

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Aspen

Position

Average Entry: R144.72

Quantity: 14.5

Stop loss: R143.13 (-R10.59 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R153.56 (-1.96%)

Waiting for a close above R152

We had a strong move on the stock on 26 April. I add to the position.

Position update

Average Entry: R149.27

Quantity: 18.5

Stop loss: R148.78 (-R0.49 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R9.07 (-0.12%)

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Bidcorp

Position

Average Entry: R293.37

Quantity: 10.4

Stop loss: R278.87 (-R14.50 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R150.80 (-2.03%)

Waiting for a close above R296

Worrying Head and shoulders breakout. However, There’s a 200d EMA just below.

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Coronation

Position

Average Entry: R50.97

Quantity: 74.6

Stop loss: R52.64 (+R1.67 reward per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit: +R124.58 (+1.68%)

The stock brokout of a bullish flag. I pull my stop loss to just below the base of the flag. The stop is now in profit slightly. Now waiting for a close above: R56. To pull my stop loss to R53.95 securing a bit more of the profits. And I will add to the position as well.

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Dischem

No Position

Waiting for a close above R23.60

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Discovery

Position

Average Entry: R137.06

Quantity: 12.1

Stop loss: R123.60 (-R13.46 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R162.87 (-2.08%)

Stock still holding the 200d EMA as support.

Waiting for a breakout of the symmetrical triangle, and a close above R140, to pull my stop to just below these current lows. Which a higher than previous lows.

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Exxaro

Position

Average Entry: R185.52

Quantity: 11.3

Stop loss: R168.8 (-R16.72 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R188.94 (-2.41%)

Waiting for: R184

Exxaro gapped sharply on ex div day. The dividend was quite chunky. To account for this I moved my stop lower to R123.60. The stock has held the 200d EMA since.

I’m now waiting for a close above R166 to readjust my stop loss.

Position

Average Entry: R185.52

Quantity: 11.3

Stop loss: R143.65 (-R41.87 risk per share)

Dividends : R18.86 * 11.3 = R170.50 (adjusted for DWT)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R302.63 (-4.08%) (adjusted for dividends received.)

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Implala

Position

Average Entry: R236.68

Quantity: 21.4

Stop loss: R259.53 (+R22.85 reward per share)

Profit ZAR: +R488.99 (+7.91%)

Waiting for a close above: R290

We had a breakout, on what now looks like it was a false breakout. I added to my position and moved my stop behind me

Position update

Average Entry: R249.99

Quantity: 27.3

Stop loss: R267.73 (+R17.38 reward per share)

Profit/loss if stop is hit ZAR: +R605.67 (+8.17%)

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Investec

No Position

Waiting for 30w EMA (40.12) to cross the 60w EMA(40.29)

The stock broke and moved sharply subsequent to the break. I have moved my stop to profit. Now waiting for a close above R56.50 to add to the position

Position

Average Entry: R47.20

Quantity: 35

Stop loss: R50.33 (+R3.13 reward per share)

Profit/loss ZAR if stop is hit: +R109.55 (+1.48%)

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Kumba Iron Ore

Position

Average Entry: R626.69

Quantity: 4.8

Stop loss: R587.31 (-R39.38 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R189.02 (-2.41%)

Waiting for a close above : R674

We had a close above R674 in was seems to have been a false break. I’ve added to the position. Now waiting for a close above R680, to move my stop loss. Looks like the stock is having a tough time breaking the R680 resistance

Position update

Average Entry: R645.8

Quantity: 7.8

Stop loss: R630.18 (-R15.02 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R117.16 (-1.58%)

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Momentum Metro

No Position

Waiting for a close above R19.80 & 30w EMA (16.93) to cross the 60w EMA(16.99)

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Mondi

Position

Average Entry: R377.01

Quantity: 15.8

Stop loss: R366.80 (-R10.21 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: -R161.32 (-2.06%)

Waiting for a close above: R393

We had a close above R393, I added to the position. I’m now looking for a new high close above R396.80. To move my stop loss to R386.

Position update

Average Entry: R383.66

Quantity: 25.6

Stop loss: R379.65 (-R4 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: -R102.66 (-1.38%)

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Mr Price

Position

Average Entry: R189.16

Quantity: 12.9

Stop loss: R176.4 (-R12.76 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: -R164.60 (-2.10%)

Waiting for a close above: R199

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MTN

Position

Average Entry: R90.46

Quantity: 34.4

Stop loss: R85.29 (-R5.17 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: -R177.85 (-2.40%)

Waiting for: R94 to pull my stop to below the low of the recent consolidation.

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Northam platinum

Position

Average Entry: R235.82

Quantity: 16.2

Stop loss: R244.6 (+R8.92 reward per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: +R144.50 (+1.84%)

Buying

Entry: R274.60

Stop loss R244.74

Quantity: 5.3

Position update

Average Entry: R241.62

Quantity: 28.2

Stop loss: R254.43 (+R12.81 reward per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: +R361.24 (+4.87%)

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Pepkor

Position

Average Entry: R15.84

Quantity: 128

Stop loss: R14.55 (-R1.29 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: -R165.12 (-2.11%)

Waiting for a close above R17

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Quilter

Position

Average Entry: R33.04

Quantity: 97.8

Stop loss: R31.44 (-R1.60 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: -R156.48 (-1.04%) (Divindes: R75.2)

Waiting for a close above R34.10

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Sappi

Position

Average Entry: R48.10

Quantity: 25.2

Stop loss: R44.84 (-R3.26 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: -R82.15 (-1.05%)

Waiting for a close above R52.16

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Shoprite

Position

Average Entry: R150.49

Quantity: 8.6

Stop loss: R133.05 (-R17.44 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: -R149.98 (-1.91%)

Waiting for a close above R153

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Transaction Capital

Position

Average Entry: R28.14

Quantity: 206.4

Stop loss: R30.78 (+2.64 reward per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: +R544.90 (+7.35%)

The stock moved to a higher box on Friday. I’m going to add to the position 33.6 shares and moving my stop to 30.78

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Truworths

Position

Average Entry: R50.39

Quantity: 26.5

Stop loss: R44.36 (-R6.03 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: -R159.80 (-2.04%)

Waiting for a close above R51

The stock hold the 50d EMA quite strongly. On the break above R51 I will trail my stop to around R46

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Sibanye

Position

Average Entry: R65.94

Quantity: 36.9

Stop loss: R62.44 (-R3.50 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: +R40 (+0.51%) (Dividends: R169.33)

Waiting for a close above R74.80

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Royal Bafokeng

Position

Average Entry: R88.27

Quantity: 27.8

Stop loss: R96.77 (+R8.50 reward per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: +R396.15 (+5.05%) (Dividends: R159.85)

Waiting for a close above R118.30, to move my stop to just below the lows of the current consolidation.

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BHP

Position

Average Entry: R38.12

Quantity: 7.4

Stop loss: R418.12 (-R19.32 risk per share)

Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: -142.97 (-1.93%)

Waiting for a close above R456

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