Week 28 September – 2 October analysis

Planning trades in advance is a very important part of a trader’s success but most importantly is following the plan and trade the plan. In this post, I go through some of the opportunities I’m looking at, looking at weekly charts.

Capitec bank

Price below 200 week EMA. Looking for shorts. But the should the price break up and violate the 200 week EMA long position play.  The split from PSG might actually push the price back to the uptrend. The share has been making high weekly lows for the past 12 or so weeks.

Mediclinic

 

We have a clear downtrend on the weekly chart. And price trading below the 200 Week EMA. We have a head and shoulder pattern. Looking to continue into the trend. Looking for a break below R53.90 neck level.

Firstrand bank

 

The share broke the 200 week EMA and it held as a support for a long time, and continued to trade lower. We have a bearish flag on the share. Waiting for the break below the base of the flag.

British American Tobacco

BAT has been trending up. We’ve seen a 50% retracement from the highs. The share has been trading between the R708 and R494 range since 2018. We also have a smaller between R598 and R561. Looking to trade the breakout either back to the top of the range or the bottom of the range.

The price broke the past week, with a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly chart. Now I’m waiting for the confirmation, close above R617 (3%) on the daily chart.

Tigerbands

The share has been on a downward trend. Trading below its 200 Week EMA. We have a symmetrical triangle pattern. Waiting for a break below the base of the triangle on a daily chart.

Telkom

 

The share recently bounced off the R15 level, an area it last traded in 2014. It has since been making higher lows since. However We have a Head and Shoulders pattern. In the direction of the trend. I’m looking to go short on the break of the diagonal neckline. Targeting the R15 Support level.

DRD Gold

 

As a gold miner, the share is quite closely correlated to the gold price movement. Has been rally along with gold. We have a bullish flag on the chart. I’m looking for a break above the top of the flag. Using the height of the flagpole, my target is R33.50. The share is trading above its 200 week EMA.

Gold fields

Like all gold stocks, Goldfields has been bullish. We have a bullish flag setting up on the share. I’m looking for a break through the top of the flag. Using the flagpole My target is R298 Which would be all time highs.

Harmony gold.

We have a bullish flag on Harmony gold. I’m looking for a break above the top of the flag on the daily chart. Using the flagpole my target is R163.

Mutltichoice

Multichoice is particularly interesting, because the share hasn’t been trading in the market for a long enough. After being spun out of Naspers. The share found an area of value in the R90-R80 previously after trending down. Before bouncing off to the R110 levels. Since its retesting this level for the first time. I’m looking for a breakout of the rectangle. Targeting the R109-R110 levels.

Absa

We have a nice symmetrical triangle pattern, currently roughly ⅔ into the triangle. I’m anticipating a break through the base of the triangle this week on the daily chart. For my target I will use the height of the triangle at its widest projected from the breaking point.

Astralfoods

The share has been trending down and the 200 week EMA seems to have held well as a resistance. With a couple of fake breakout above the 200 week EMA. We have a bullish divergence with the price making lower lows but the MACD making higher lows. I will now wait for the break through the resistance level of R166 and close above R170 (3%) Potentially closing above the 200EMA as well. To target the previous resistance at around R220.

AVI

 

AVI broke through the 200 Week EMA and has been making lower highs and lower lows prior to breaking through the 200 week EMA. I’m looking for shorting opportunities. I’m waiting for a break below the R66 support and a close below R64(3% break) on the daily chart. Targeting the R47 previous support level.

Bidvest

 

The share broke through the 200 week EMA with a nice kangoo tail the previous week. I am looking for a short trade on the break below the R131 and a close below R127.50 on the daily chart. Looking to target R102 support level.

Clicks

 

The share has been trending up and well above the 200 week EMA. We have an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern forming. I’m looking for a break through the neckline on the daily chart.

Coronation

The share has been stuck in the R44 – R39 range for a while now. I’ve been waiting for the break below the R39 level because the share is trading below the 200 week EMA. It recently did break through the R39 level but didn’t close below the R37 confirmation level. I’m waiting for the close below R37 on the daily chart.

DiscoverySA

Looking the bigger picture, the share has been on a down trend. It recently came back to retest the diagonal resistance level. With a false break through the 200 Week EMA proving to be quite a strong resistance. I’m waiting for a break below the R113 support level and a close below R109, to target the R87 support level.

Exxaro

The share has been trending up trading above its 200 week EMA. There’s an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming on the share. This week the share closed below the 200 week EMA. We will see if it carries lower or complete the Head & and Shoulders pattern. Should the share close below R100 support level. I will consider the head & shoulders setup to have failed and look to short the share.

JSE

The share has been making lower highs since February 2018. Broke through the 200 EMA. It did come back to test it again and failed to violate it, continuing to trade below the 200EMA. Looking for a break below R114 support level and a close below R110.50. My target R83 previous resistance level. Which was tested and held well as support.

Newplat

We have a bullish flag on share. The share is trading above both 200 week and day EMAs. looking for a break above the top of the flag. Using the height of the flagpole projected upwards my target is R175 level.

Pepkor

 

The share has been trending down, and well below the 200 week EMA. We have a descending triangle pattern. Looking for a break below R9.91 the height of the broadest point of the triangle My target is R4.30 level.

RMIH

The share has been making lower highs and lower lows. It broke through the 200 week EMA. It retested the 200 EMA. The share had been trading in the R32 – R28 range. The share price broke the support level, I’m now waiting for the close below the confirmation at R27

Standard bank

The share broke through the 200 week EMA. We have a bearish flag on the share. I’m looking for a break below the base of the flag. using the flag pole projected downwards  my target R36.32.

Truworths

The share has been on a downtrend downward, trading below the 200 week EMA. We have a symmetrical triangle pattern that formed.  The share is now at ⅔ I’m looking for the break below the base of the triangle on the daily chart.

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