I have recently made a significant change to my trading system. This significant change is actually quite minor. The change is in how I define a primary trend. Initially I used the 30w EMA relative to the 60w EMA. I will now use 50d EMA relative to the 200d EMA.
- 50d EMA above 200d EMA = Up trend
- 50d EMA below 200d = Down trend.
I still need the 200d EMA behind me when I buy a stock. That part hasn’t changed.
This subtle change will add the number of trades available for me to trade. Most of which were ignored previously. I will manage that by reducing my risk per trade to 1% per trade with a maximum of 2% accounting for slippage and costs
Account summary 2 May 2021
Total invested capital: R9 000
Balance: R7 415.80 -17.6%
Equity: R9 645.49 +7.17%
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Position
Average Entry: R1480
Quantity: 1
Stop loss: R1234.5 (-R245.5 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R245.5 (-3.11%)
I was for a close above R1480, we got that on Thursday 28 APril. The stock closed at R1489.48. I moved my stop loss to R1346.58
Position update
Average Entry: R1480
Quantity: 1
Stop loss: R1346.58 (-R133.42 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R133.42 (-1.80%)
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No Position
Waiting for a close above R53
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Position
Average Entry: R114.69
Quantity: 26.9
Stop loss: R111.53 (-R3.16 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R85 (-1.08%)
Waiting for 125.50
I’ve added to the position, after the stock broke higher, and trailed my stop loss to R119.58
Position
Average Entry: R119.57
Quantity: 56.5
Stop loss: R119.58 (-R0.01 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit: +R0.57 (+ 0.01%)
Now waiting for a close above R126.75, to move my stop loss to 122.50
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No Position
Waiting for a close above R98
We got a close above the R98 on Wednesday. Bought 9.5 shares at R100.58
Position
Average Entry: R100.58
Quantity: 9.5
Stop loss: R87.75 (-R12.83 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R-1.64 (-1.64%)
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Position
Average Entry: R131.73
Quantity: 12
Stop loss: R118.88 (-R12.85 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R154.20 (-1.97%)
Waiting for a close above R133
The stock is struggling with the 50d EMA but still holding the 200d EMA. Signaling the market is undecided at the moment. Still consolidating from the run of late 2020.
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Position
Average Entry: R126
Quantity: 18
Stop loss: R118.7 (-R7.30 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R131.40 (-1.77%)
We have a nice symmetrical triangle pattern on Absa. The stock is holding the 50d EMA. R122 seems to hold support as well.
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Position
Average Entry: R283.07
Quantity: 7.1
Stop loss: R260.07 (-R23 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R163.30 (-2.08%)
Waiting for a close above: R294.50
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Aspen
Position
Average Entry: R144.72
Quantity: 14.5
Stop loss: R143.13 (-R10.59 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R153.56 (-1.96%)
Waiting for a close above R152
We had a strong move on the stock on 26 April. I add to the position.
Position update
Average Entry: R149.27
Quantity: 18.5
Stop loss: R148.78 (-R0.49 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R9.07 (-0.12%)
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Position
Average Entry: R293.37
Quantity: 10.4
Stop loss: R278.87 (-R14.50 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R150.80 (-2.03%)
Waiting for a close above R296
Worrying Head and shoulders breakout. However, There’s a 200d EMA just below.
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Position
Average Entry: R50.97
Quantity: 74.6
Stop loss: R52.64 (+R1.67 reward per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit: +R124.58 (+1.68%)
The stock brokout of a bullish flag. I pull my stop loss to just below the base of the flag. The stop is now in profit slightly. Now waiting for a close above: R56. To pull my stop loss to R53.95 securing a bit more of the profits. And I will add to the position as well.
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Dischem
No Position
Waiting for a close above R23.60
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Position
Average Entry: R137.06
Quantity: 12.1
Stop loss: R123.60 (-R13.46 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R162.87 (-2.08%)
Stock still holding the 200d EMA as support.
Waiting for a breakout of the symmetrical triangle, and a close above R140, to pull my stop to just below these current lows. Which a higher than previous lows.
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Position
Average Entry: R185.52
Quantity: 11.3
Stop loss: R168.8 (-R16.72 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R188.94 (-2.41%)
Waiting for: R184
Exxaro gapped sharply on ex div day. The dividend was quite chunky. To account for this I moved my stop lower to R123.60. The stock has held the 200d EMA since.
I’m now waiting for a close above R166 to readjust my stop loss.
Position
Average Entry: R185.52
Quantity: 11.3
Stop loss: R143.65 (-R41.87 risk per share)
Dividends : R18.86 * 11.3 = R170.50 (adjusted for DWT)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R302.63 (-4.08%) (adjusted for dividends received.)
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Position
Average Entry: R236.68
Quantity: 21.4
Stop loss: R259.53 (+R22.85 reward per share)
Profit ZAR: +R488.99 (+7.91%)
Waiting for a close above: R290
We had a breakout, on what now looks like it was a false breakout. I added to my position and moved my stop behind me
Position update
Average Entry: R249.99
Quantity: 27.3
Stop loss: R267.73 (+R17.38 reward per share)
Profit/loss if stop is hit ZAR: +R605.67 (+8.17%)
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No Position
Waiting for 30w EMA (40.12) to cross the 60w EMA(40.29)
The stock broke and moved sharply subsequent to the break. I have moved my stop to profit. Now waiting for a close above R56.50 to add to the position
Position
Average Entry: R47.20
Quantity: 35
Stop loss: R50.33 (+R3.13 reward per share)
Profit/loss ZAR if stop is hit: +R109.55 (+1.48%)
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Kumba Iron Ore
Position
Average Entry: R626.69
Quantity: 4.8
Stop loss: R587.31 (-R39.38 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R189.02 (-2.41%)
Waiting for a close above : R674
We had a close above R674 in was seems to have been a false break. I’ve added to the position. Now waiting for a close above R680, to move my stop loss. Looks like the stock is having a tough time breaking the R680 resistance
Position update
Average Entry: R645.8
Quantity: 7.8
Stop loss: R630.18 (-R15.02 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit: -R117.16 (-1.58%)
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Momentum Metro
No Position
Waiting for a close above R19.80 & 30w EMA (16.93) to cross the 60w EMA(16.99)
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Position
Average Entry: R377.01
Quantity: 15.8
Stop loss: R366.80 (-R10.21 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: -R161.32 (-2.06%)
Waiting for a close above: R393
We had a close above R393, I added to the position. I’m now looking for a new high close above R396.80. To move my stop loss to R386.
Position update
Average Entry: R383.66
Quantity: 25.6
Stop loss: R379.65 (-R4 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: -R102.66 (-1.38%)
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Position
Average Entry: R189.16
Quantity: 12.9
Stop loss: R176.4 (-R12.76 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: -R164.60 (-2.10%)
Waiting for a close above: R199
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Position
Average Entry: R90.46
Quantity: 34.4
Stop loss: R85.29 (-R5.17 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: -R177.85 (-2.40%)
Waiting for: R94 to pull my stop to below the low of the recent consolidation.
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Position
Average Entry: R235.82
Quantity: 16.2
Stop loss: R244.6 (+R8.92 reward per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: +R144.50 (+1.84%)
Buying
Entry: R274.60
Stop loss R244.74
Quantity: 5.3
Position update
Average Entry: R241.62
Quantity: 28.2
Stop loss: R254.43 (+R12.81 reward per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: +R361.24 (+4.87%)
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Position
Average Entry: R15.84
Quantity: 128
Stop loss: R14.55 (-R1.29 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: -R165.12 (-2.11%)
Waiting for a close above R17
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Quilter
Position
Average Entry: R33.04
Quantity: 97.8
Stop loss: R31.44 (-R1.60 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: -R156.48 (-1.04%) (Divindes: R75.2)
Waiting for a close above R34.10
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Position
Average Entry: R48.10
Quantity: 25.2
Stop loss: R44.84 (-R3.26 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: -R82.15 (-1.05%)
Waiting for a close above R52.16
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Shoprite
Position
Average Entry: R150.49
Quantity: 8.6
Stop loss: R133.05 (-R17.44 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: -R149.98 (-1.91%)
Waiting for a close above R153
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Position
Average Entry: R28.14
Quantity: 206.4
Stop loss: R30.78 (+2.64 reward per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: +R544.90 (+7.35%)
The stock moved to a higher box on Friday. I’m going to add to the position 33.6 shares and moving my stop to 30.78
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Position
Average Entry: R50.39
Quantity: 26.5
Stop loss: R44.36 (-R6.03 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: -R159.80 (-2.04%)
Waiting for a close above R51
The stock hold the 50d EMA quite strongly. On the break above R51 I will trail my stop to around R46
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Position
Average Entry: R65.94
Quantity: 36.9
Stop loss: R62.44 (-R3.50 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: +R40 (+0.51%) (Dividends: R169.33)
Waiting for a close above R74.80
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Royal Bafokeng
Position
Average Entry: R88.27
Quantity: 27.8
Stop loss: R96.77 (+R8.50 reward per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: +R396.15 (+5.05%) (Dividends: R159.85)
Waiting for a close above R118.30, to move my stop to just below the lows of the current consolidation.
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BHP
Position
Average Entry: R38.12
Quantity: 7.4
Stop loss: R418.12 (-R19.32 risk per share)
Profit/Loss if stop is hit ZAR: -142.97 (-1.93%)
Waiting for a close above R456
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